Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. Accordingly, the floor is 40%. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. Richard Nixon 1969-74. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. Those is Tim. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. After about a three-year hiatus, FiveThirtyEights Popularity Above Replacement Senator and Popularity Above Replacement Governor ratings are back! Results from the most recent update. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. Cmon! Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. Ronald Reagan, the nation's 40th president, became one of the nation's most revered public figures in recent years, a distinct turnabout from the average job approval ratings he received while in office between 1981 and 1989. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? As they have for years, three northeastern, blue-state Republicans lead the way: Govs. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. . He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. Can we marry dogs? Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . His race is expected to be very competitive. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. But what they missed was that she could create a sincere connection with those working-class voters in rural areas and in Democratic-rich Dane [County] and Milwaukee.. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. Ronald Reagan 1981-89. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. The American Independent is the No. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. In July, in our last survey, President Biden's approval rating was 33 percent, one of his worst results of the cycle. The poll, whose . Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. This is up from 80% a year ago, even though 87% of respondents had deployed anti-virus software. Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. Those include Republican Sens. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Johnson is quite popular today with pro-Trump voters in Wisconsin (those who view Trump positively), drawing a net rating of around plus 60 in recent years. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Cant fix stupid or true believers. Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. Timmy! . Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. Voters will be measuring him against a Democratic opponent, but we wont know who that will be until after the states August primary. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. The . The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Got a confidential news tip? Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support. Right now, the Democrats are trying to steal this election blah, blah, blah!. 2020 Senate Elections (55) Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). 1990 FLEER. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Today, the Democrat wins, he said. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Frankly, who cares what you think about Biden, the real question about your thinking is: Do you really believe voters are equally sickened by Biden as they truly are with Trump? and Biden approval rating unchanged. Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Gerald Ford 1974-77. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. More money is expected to flow into the race as the candidates barrel toward the November general election. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Need to report an error? Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

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